Why US Poverty WIll Grow

Why US Poverty Will Grow

First we should understand poverty is largely caused by dysfunctional behavior. Certainly factors such as natural disasters, famine, and disease may be beyond human control and contribute to deprivation. But even the debilitating effects of the unforeseen can be often largely mitigated by planning. There are huge differences in the impact of an earthquake in Haiti or Pakistan versus, say, one in Japan. The point is practically all poverty could be eliminated if people worked together with common intent of furthering the greatest good for the greatest number. Poverty is not an inherent part of the human condition.

The greatest world-wide contributor to the "dysfunction equation" is irresponsible procreation� people producing children when lacking means to provide reasonable care. In some regions foreign aid directed at urgent short term emergencies has in the long term exacerbated poverty by reducing infant mortality while ignoring family planning resulting in inevitable rapid growth of population... in addition to creating food dependencies and agricultural monocultures more vulnerable to the vagaries of climate change. Eventually resources are overwhelmed, tribal struggles escalate and people are driven to urban slums or barios lacking even basic amenities like sanitation and making poverty even worse. While foreign aid may offer some short term relief in the form of disease reduction or the lessening of a food shortage, it can contribute to the liklihood of disaster in long term by unleashing rapid population growth. And the growing effects of climate change can make it all much messier.

A glaring example over the last several decades is the Sahel area of northern Africa stretching along the southern Sahara. Over the last few decades both poverty and population growth in this area have been among the highest in the world while climate change is increasing desertification resulting in water shortages for drinking and agriculture and causing food shortages� all made worse by internecine/ tribal warfare. Conditions have worsened considerably in spite of the fact the region has received billions of dollars of Western "aid".

Poverty in the US roots largely from the several factors discussed below. The net effect is the shrinkage of the general labor market at the same time skills of jobseekers are increasingly less aligned with market needs. While there are shortages in the technical or highly specialized job markets, we struggle with growing labor surpluses on the lower end of the skill scale. Immigration policies compound by making it difficult for highly trained people to immigrate, while making it fairly easy for millions of the unskilled to enter illegally with relative ease. This default policy exists because one political party thrives on the campaign contributions from those benefitting from cheap labor and the other party courts the votes of immigrant minorities.

Societies have produced labor surpluses many times in the past. In some cases excesses were enslaved to build pyramids or temples or they were recruited into armies for military adventurism and conquests. Or human surpluses were conveniently exported to colonies with expanding economies and the resources to readily absorb them. Or they were pressured to migrate to less populated areas where new hunting grounds or fertile land to grow food could be found. Or there was, in the worst cases, genocide. Since these options are essentially no longer available or acceptable for addressing surpluses we must begin to think anew.

But first it is helpful to review some trends driving the growing mismatch between labor supply and demand.

Consider the following:

Automation. Some call it the GRIN convergence� a synergistic technological meshing of Genetics, Robotics, Information processing and Nanotech. The gist is that elimination of jobs by automation will not only continue but likely accelerate. The types of jobs falling to wayside were once considered the backbone of the middle class... manufacturing being the most obvious example. Automation will become even more competent, inexpensive, and available. And it is an inherent aspect of a free enterprise economy that markets seek efficiencies in the spirit of competition. When machines are able to do tasks better at less cost their use is a no brainer.

Globalization. As world economies become increasingly interconnected or globalized job markets respond to the pressures of competitive advantage. And there are still huge surpluses of cheap labor in many developing countries. While corporations benefit from lower cost workers, developing countries desire the benefits of relatively high paying jobs along with the transfer of capital and technology. In a world with growing free enterprise jobs will travel whenever economics dictate.

Growing numbers of unskilled. Social welfare programs and other disincentives have led to an increase in the number of children born to the financially stressed and generally less skilled. Over the last several decades births to public assistance mothers have increased to half of all births. And per Census Bureau data fertility rates of these women exceed others by a factor of three. With the interacting effects of heredity and environment it is less likely a child born to financially stressed parents will be able to acquire skills necessary to be competitive in a technological world of increasing complexity. Programs should be redirected towards intervention and educating young people about the demands and responsibilities of parenting and to providing family planning tools and assistance to prevent unwanted pregnancies. In addition economic incentives should be used to encourage postponing pregnancy until it can be economically accommodated along with stipulations requiring recipients of public assistance to provide assurance that there will be no further reproduction while receiving aid.

A major hurdle to restructuring welfare is the belief held by some that it is an inherent human right or "liberty" to produce babies without considering the impact on others. This notion has roots in religion (s.a. be prolific and God will provide) as well as misguided interpretations of the word liberty in the preamble to the Constitution. It would seem if we accept as legitimate and reasonable the regulation of professions (such as doctors, lawyers and engineers) and many manufacturing operations in order to assure quality when if likely affects others, it would also be acceptable to regulate what many consider the most important "job" of all� parenting. In a civil society no one should equate "liberty" with the freedom to irresponsibly do things that negatively affect the welfare of others� including producing children while expecting others to provide care.

(A confusing concern often accompanying birth control discussions is abortion. But if framed rationally the concern appears baseless... see Note 1 below.)

Growing economic disparities and resulting factionalism. The fact that goods and services can be produced with fewer workers results in growing accumulations of wealth in the hands of fewer people. Economic disparities (ratios of top management salaries to those at entry level) in the US have grown from about 60 to over 400 in the last several decades.

Maybe the most damaging impact from extreme wealth accumulation is the corrupting influence on governance. Huge wealth coupled with growing media presence makes it easier for those having wealth to buy the means to protect it. Vested interests simply buy the media presence and the political influence to protect their monopolistic control and direct policies to serve their best interests... s. a. tax cuts for the wealthy.

This trend combined with the tightening of public budgets due to deficits and continued market de-leveraging in the financial sector will likely further worsen poverty by forcing reductions in transfer payments to the poor. And social tensions are made worse when the gross displays of conspicuous consumption of a few are juxtaposed against the increased impoverishment of the many. This will inevitably lead to increased levels of social confrontation which can additionally exacerbate political dysfunction.

(The issue of modifying democracy often arises when considering voter ignorance and apathy. For ideas regarding how the quality of the electorate might be improved see Note 2 below.)

What could be done:

Poverty in the US can be reduced by increasing welfare services and payments or creating jobs (via either government spending increases or private sector job market expansion). Welfare payments have been demonstrated repeatedly to be problematic since over time they generally produce dependency, destroy initiative, increase cyclical poverty and run counter not only to the welfare of recipients but also that of the public who must pay the costs with sacrifice.

Of course, there are many ways individuals can (and should) volunteer to help mitigate povery impacts and make the lives of the poor less stressful. Instruction or assistance in budgeting, health care, nutrition, family planning, self discipline and financial management can in some cases provide the assistance required to help people not only deal with the many malignancies of poverty but provide them with the means to escape. But while we try to mitigate the symptoms we must also pay attention to causes if we hope to ever effectively expedite its core riddance. And it is in this we have for the most part failed.

The way out for most begins with a job. Even though there will be an ongoing parade of new gadgets and consumer items creating some new jobs a turnaround in the downward trend of manufacturing jobs is not expected. To a large extent the new things will be either manufactured by foreign low cost labor or locally by automated equipment with the net result adding relatively few additional jobs for low skilled workers.

All this leaves job creation in public services and the government as the employer of last resort. This will require a change in thinking and will be difficult for some to swallow. But it is the reality. Since increasing tax revenues are a tough sell and large deficits currently plague governments, creating the additional funds for new projects and jobs should be first directed at cutting government waste and reinvesting the savings. And there is much to cut... just consider spending in medical care, education, the judicial system and the military.

Compared to other developed countries we spend twice per capita on medical care and yet health statistics show the US at the bottom relative to other developed countries. Estimates show about half of all med costs resulting from insurance costs and the unnecessary prescriptions for drugs and procedures that doctors prescribe as "cya" to protect against legal action. Thus tort reform alone could produce major cost savings. And since over half of medical expenditures go towards extending life (often contrary to the wishes of the patient) in its last few months, end of life counseling and euthanasia could produce a considerable additional savings. These simple (at least in concept) changes would not only majorly reduce costs but advance the overall welfare of patients.

We also spend twice per capita on education compared to other developed countries and again the measures show us at the bottom. Our educational system resembles a calcified monolithic bureaucracy hamstrung by unions that protect the incompetent and resist change. And it is based on the assumption that all students should learn the same things at the same times in their lives in a similar way and in a similarly structured classroom atmosphere. This runs counter to all we know about human nature. We should redesign the whole mess and consider a privatizing voucher system to circumvent the bureaucracy and encourage experimentation with different approaches and models that would better fit the widely diverse needs and interests of all students. And as an alternative to the classical hierarchical classroom structure we should experiment with interactive computer instruction allowing students to progress at levels commensurate with their ability while seeking help from an instructor only when needed.

And we spend many times the average on a judicial system that incarcerates more people per capita than any other country while still leaving us with relatively high rates of violent crime. Clearly we have it wrong... and it is becoming more apparent that the so-called "drug war" is a big part of it. This senseless reincarnation of "prohibition" reeked of hypocrisy, corruption and stupidity from the get-go. We not only waste hundreds of billions yearly prosecuting and incarcerating while exacerbating criminality and violence, but the huge amounts of cash generated by untaxed markets fund gangs and terrorists around the world� ranging from cartels in Mexico to Muslim fanatics hiding in the mountains of Afghanistan. And then we spend more billions fighting the gangs.

Then there is the bloated military bureaucracy and our self assumed role as world policeman. With less than 5% of the world's population our military expenditures are as great as the combined military outlay of the rest of the world. Do we really need 900 bases in 130 countries? For decades the military industrial lobbyists hyped the Soviet Empire and its always bigger than life military capability that could bury us. When it fell apart we found the claims to ring hollow. But in the interim we spent trillions. Now they over-hype terrorism to keep the money flowing� while we continue to bleed ourselves. It is long overdue that we shrink the role of the military industrial complex of which we were so long ago forewarned. We should support our troops by bringing them safely home and avoiding unnecessary military adventurism in the future while reducing military expenditures to a level comparable to other developed countries.

Reducing waste will free considerable resources for job creation and other needs. And there is plenty of work to be done that would serve the generally welfare of the country. For example, much infrastructure is badly in need of repair and modernization and many environmental cleanups and restorations wait to be addressed.

Additional funding to balance budgets and further increase hiring the next step could be achieved by tax reform goaled towards simplification (of codes) and fairness achieved by eliminating loopholes or privileges favoring special interests and reducing gross economic disparities. Studies in Europe have repeatedly shown income differentials ranging from five to ten to be quite adequate for motivating people to be the best they can be. Thus, more progressive taxation likely would not hinder creative expression or reduce motivation or reasonable expectations of reward. And adjusting levels of extreme wealth would also contribute to a percerption of a fairer form of economic democracy and temper the potential for class polarization and conflict leading to violent confrontations.

No one creates wealth in a vacuum. It is generated by a complexity of interactions by a few with the many and made possible by assurances of honesty in the market place, protection of international interests and markets, good infrastructure and education and health care and the ongoing stuggle against governmental corruption. All this costs money and it would seem only reasonable to expect those benefitting most from the efficient machinery of a complex society be prepared to contribute more to maintaining its continuing efficiency.

The big picture conclusion is inescapable. We are socially inter-dependent... meaning the welfare of individuals is inherently linked and networked. If we wish poverty to decrease we must change some of the ways we do things and think about the world we live in. Changing the way people think is difficult. And it might take a catastrophe type wake-up call before the neccessity is realized. But growing poverty in the midst of growing accumulations of wealth is destined to lead to social instability accompanied by resulting dysfunctionality. It will sooner or later become apparent that we must change our behavior if we wish to continue living in any semblance of a civilized world.

Through most of our recent past, people generally believed they were passing on to their progeny a better world than the one they inherited. We now question whether this still holds. We are beginning to understand that during the last several decades we seem to have unwittingly made the mess we inherited bigger with potential repercussions for all forms of life. We have watched technology give us many items almost inconceivable only a short time ago. But the root question should be Do we feel better about our lives? Are we happier or more content? Are we furthering the "Greater Good for a Greater Number"?

NOTES:

1) The issue of abortion often arises out of birth control discussions. It has roots in religious biases. But when framed in a rational context most would find it reasonable to value all forms of life at levels roughly commensurate with awareness. Thus we commonly value the life of a porpoise over a fish or a dog over a mouse. In this context it should be easy to grasp that terminating the life of a fetus in the first few months of pregnancy would rank pretty low on the value of life scale due to an almost total lack of a central nervous system. Think of the many forms of life with much greater awareness we destroy for food and sometimes just for the thrill of the kill. Where is the "moral" outcry?

2) It is time to rethink what we want from "democracy". Nowhere is it mentioned in our Constitution. Indeed the right to vote was initially given only to white males who owned property. While this might not be an optimal formula for generating a well informed electorate it certainly dispels the notion that the right of all to vote, regardless of awareness or cognitive ability, has Constitutional grounds.

A simple civics test gauging basic knowledge of social, economic and technical issues would go a long way towards improving the awareness and reducing gullibility of voters. There would be hurdles to developing an acceptable test and difficulties setting up the process of administration� but potential rewards far outweigh difficulties. Not only could it greatly improve the awareness of the electorate making it more resilient to manipulation but it would motivate people to a greater understanding of the world in which they live.

No one benefits from the decisions made by ill informed voters in the long term. Certainly the manipulation of the vulnerable may serve the needs of a few. But the long term ramifications of this can be fatal. It is difficult to visualize meaningful correction of our many societal weaknesses including poverty without addressing this major flaw in applied democracy. An ignorant and apathetic electorate is no match for vested interests equipped with the means to appeal to our most atavistic knee-jerk tribal biases and emotions.

10.6.a